World of Discourse
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Bureau of Labor Statistics Non-farm Payroll for November 2009
December 4, 2009 by Bilsybub
It’s out
And frankly, it’s stronger than anyone expected. Job losses were minimal, and seasonally adjusted employment ticked upwards. The household survey indicates that employment ticked upwards while the labor force declined, leading to a .2% decline in the headline unemployment rate.
The non-seasonally adjusted employment number bounced a tad, indicating that last month’s changes were comparable with a non-recessionary employment situation. This is admittedly a really noisy data point, as oct->nov is all over the map, regardless of economic climate.
The number really doesn’t suggest an improving employment situation, so much as a dramatic halt in the decline. I think Barry Ritholtz is right in suggesting that Seasonal Adjustments including last year’s relatively anomalous drop are artificially inflating the headline data.
I’m also really confused by the dramatic divergence from ADP’s data. 11,000 jobs lost in the establishment survey simply does not comport with ADP’s 165,000 jobs lost. I don’t recall seeing a divergence of that magnitude, though I’d need to go check the historical record to verify that.
Regardless, this is a big positive for the holiday season, and will likely push bullish sentiment through the end of the year, easily.
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